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I always find it fascinating that you can open the news on any given day and see a flood of opinion pieces about “what’s happening in the economy.” The problem? Many of these takes are just that — opinions — because the actual data has not been released.
Here is the truth:
Because of the government shutdown, the Bureau of Labor Statistics has not released any employment report since August. The last verified figure we have is that 22,000 jobs were added in August. That’s it. Everything else circulating right now is speculation.
Meanwhile, ADP — a private payroll company — reported that throughout October, an average of 14,000 new private-sector employees were added each week. That is real, current data.
We also do not have an updated unemployment rate due to the shutdown. So when headlines proclaim that hiring is cooling, a recession is imminent, or “everything is slowing down,” it’s important to remember: without data, these narratives are opinions, not facts.
Let me be very clear:
A recession requires two consecutive quarters of negative GDP. We are nowhere near that. Could it happen? Sure. But I refuse to participate in the fear-based storytelling that is dominating so much of the American press right now.
And here is what I know from inside the industry:
Recruiters typically feel economic shifts before anyone else. In the past few months, I’ve spoken with colleagues in technology, hospitality, and several emerging sectors — every one of them is having one of their strongest years. What I am seeing, particularly since the shutdown, is an odd rhythm of “hit the gas, hit the brakes, hit the gas, hit the brakes.” It’s a wave of indecision at the leadership level, and what happens at the top always trickles down.
One statistic I found especially telling:
Job boards and social platforms generate 49% of all job applications, yet only 24.6% of all actual hires.
And here is another fact that matters:
10,000 baby boomers are retiring every single day.
To me, all of this reinforces what many of you already know:
Good employers and good employees are still hard to find.
In fact, a sourced, recruited, and passive-persuaded candidate is five times more likely to be hired than someone simply responding to a posting. And that is the deep underlying reason our industry exists: the best companies want the best people — and the best people are not easily had. They must be identified, engaged, courted, and persuaded. That is the work.
As we head into the holiday season, I believe in sharing optimism where it’s grounded in truth. And the data we do have points to strength, not collapse.
We can't thank you enough for being a part of our Tangent West community.
Cheryl Grimaldi, CPC
Founder/President
Tangent West
970.390.0773
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